Turnaround Underway But Heavy Lift to Return to Algo... 

Research evidence excerpt

Turnaround Underway But Heavy Lift to Return to Algo...

Broadlines & Hardlines

Home Improvement - Market Overweight

TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (TSCO) May 13, 2026

Turnaround Underway But Heavy Lift to Return to Algo... Rating:

Outperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $30.59

We recently caught up with Tractor Supply's CFO Kurt Barton and Head of Investor Price Target:

Relations Mary Winn Pilkington. While TSCO has many initiatives in place to $48

stabilize comps, investors need to settle in for a multi-quarter turnaround here. % Upside:

56.6%

View TSCO Model

Pet concerns are unlikely to dissipate quickly and more creative usage of their View Comp Table

stores likely needs to be contemplated. From scaling their pet food subscription Company Information

programs, to leveraging Petsense relationships, growing Allivet, and rethinking 52-Week Range $30 - $63

side lot initiatives, there are a lot of opportunities here. From our investor calls, we Market Cap. (MM) $16,043

hear continued concerns about 2Q as intra-quarter data has worsened and a FY Enterprise Value (MM) $22,340

Shares Out. (MM) 524.4

guidance cut becomes consensus. Investor sentiment has turned negative which Avg. Value Traded (MM) $376.94

typically means there is an opportunity. SI% of Float 5.5%

(-) Dog Populations Continue to Move Lower. Mgmt noted that before COVID there Price Performance

were just under 90mm dogs in the US that spiked to 96mm at the peak and is now YTD LTM

TSCO (24)% (24)%

back to the 90mm level. While the pet industry looked like it was troughing in 2024, S&P 500 4% 34%

that has not proven to be the case, and it worsened through 2025, with the real impact

clearer in 1Q when Pet mix is the highest. 6560

(-) Comp Cadence through the Year Relies on 2H Step Up. There does need to be 5550