Tractor Supply Company "Back in the Saddle?" (Neutral) Lasser

Research evidence excerpt

Tractor Supply Company "Back in the Saddle?" (Neutral) Lasser

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

Tractor Supply Company Equities

AmericasBack in the Saddle?

Retailers, Specialty

12-month rating Neutral

TSCO's 2Q shifted the debate toward the company's long-term earnings power

While TSCO delivered a well-anticipated shortfall in 2Q, we do not believe the quarter 12m price target US$33.00

materially altered the near-term story. Instead, the more important takeaway is that it

sharpened the debate around TSCO's earnings power over the next several years. While

Price (23 Jul 2026) US$30.32

the company appears to have reset expectations to a more achievable level for 2H'26,

the withdrawal of its long-term framework has brought two key questions into focus: 1) RIC: TSCO.O BBG: TSCO US

can TSCO return to a more normalized comp and earnings algorithm in 2027, and 2)

Trading data and key metrics

where does the company's steady-state growth profile ultimately settle as the business

52-wk range US$62.65-29.14

matures?

Market cap. US$15.9b

Shares o/s 524m (COM)

From a 2H'26 perspective, the path to improving comps appears more favorable than

Free float 99%

the path to improving profitability. Following its 2Q results, we believe TSCO has a

Avg. daily volume ('000) 12,869

credible setup to deliver sequential comp improvement in the back half of the year. We

suspect the May comp decline was driven more by consumer-related pressures than Avg. daily value (m) US$400.8

company-specific execution issues, while recent actions in pet and pricing appear to be Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$2.54b

gaining traction. These factors, combined with easier comparisons beginning in August, P/BV (12/26E) 6.3x

support our view that TSCO can stabilize quarterly comp trends. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.1x