Strong Demand, Unprecedented Visibility Supports the Story

Research evidence excerpt

Strong Demand, Unprecedented Visibility Supports the Story

Semiconductor Capital Equipment

Applied Materials

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC ESTIMATE CHANGES

May 14, 2026

Price: $440.56 (05/14/2026) Strong Demand, Unprecedented Visibility

Price Target: $525.00 (Prior $450.00) Supports the Story

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 61/100

Krish Sankar THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

415 646 7372

Two-year visibility is unprecedented in semi-caps, and with 23% share in leading-edge

krish.sankar@tdsecurities.com

Foundry, 25% share in DRAM, and 50% growth in packaging keeps us constructive on AMAT.

Eddy Orabi PT to $525 or 30x CY27 EPS of ~$17.50 (~15% higher above St. pre-call).

415 646 7371

eddy.orabi@tdsecurities.com

AMAT guided Semi business to grow more than 30% this CY, which at 20% share implies a WFE

Steven Chin of +$140B, in line with LRCX outlook. AMAT also expects a linear second half for sequential

415 646 7374 growth, and we model up mid-single digits Q/Q in both OctQ and JanQ after a ~16% growth in

steven.chin@tdsecurities.com JulQ., translating to ~$155B in run-rate WFE exiting CY26.

Robert Mertens, CFA Longer term, AMAT highlighted that its biggest customers have been providing an 8-qtr. rolling

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forecast, which gives AMAT visibility into mid-2028. Interestingly, AMAT doesn't think that

robert.mertens@tdsecurities.com

calling out 2028 as a growth year is "too early to call," which is unprecedented for semicaps

Key Data and proves the durability of this cycle. Management also expects to see "more and more

Symbol NASDAQ: AMAT capacity plans from customers." This is important as the bear case for semicaps is that WFE

Beta: 1.65 estimates already embed most of the already announced greenfield capacity, particularly

52-Week Range: $443.62-$156.25 DRAM (see preview).