US Semicap Equipment: Raising ests & WFE outlook; Where do semicaps go from here?

Research evidence excerpt

US Semicap Equipment: Raising ests & WFE outlook; Where do semicaps go from here?

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

United States 8 July 2026

US Semicap

TMT Industry Update

Semicap Equipment Equipment

Raising ests & WFE outlook; Where do

semicaps go from here?

Melissa Weathers

Raising WFE forecast to $193b/$220b in 2027/2028 Research Analyst

With this note we are raising our estimates for the semicap equipment sector to +1-212-250-2134

more accurately reflect the timing of new fab buildouts. This reflects elevated

Ross Seymore

spending and pull-ins of fab projects across DRAM & Foundry customers over the Research Analyst

last 90 days. All told, we now see WFE rising to $145b in 2026, $193b in 2027, and +1-415-617-3268

$220b in 2028, representing +32%/+33%/+14% y/y growth. We expect risk to these

ests remain to the upside as customers continue to find ways to accelerate capacity Key Changes

buildouts. We also expect investor focus to shift from degree of magnitude of Company Target Price Rating

upside, to feasibility of upside and robustness of the semicap supply chain to

550.00 to

service this strong demand. AMAT.OQ 680.00 -

1,750.00 to

KLAC.OQ -

Raising rev/EPS estimates across our large-cap coverage 220.00

With this note we are also flowing through our higher assumptions into our models 325.00 to

LRCX.OQ -

for our large-cap semicap universe. On higher revs & EPS, our ests for AMAT/KLAC/ 385.00

LRCX now stand ~10-13% above Street expectations looking into 2027E. In Source: Deutsche Bank

addition, we generally expect our large-cap names to deliver healthy beats/raises

during 2Q results to reflect continued momentum in fab buildouts across the semis

universe and to reflect a highly constructive buildout environment in 2H26.