Q1/26 Results: June Business Update a Catalyst in Our View

Research evidence excerpt

Q1/26 Results: June Business Update a Catalyst in Our View

e

C$19,200.0

(MM): ■Timelines Around the Tribunal Process Remain Uncertain: Management provided little

Dividend: C$2.12

incremental color around the Competition Tribunal process and stated it was too early

Yield: 3.8%

to speculate on timelines, but did note a high confidence in its case. We understand this

General: Market cap, net debt and EV contemplate Plains

transaction process may stretch out ~12-18 months depending on the nature and complexity of the

matter.

FY 2026E 2027E 2028E

■Further Colour on Plains Synergies Provided: The majority of overhead-related synergies will

(Dec)

be captured on day one post close through the natural integration of the two businesses.

Adj. EBITDA ($mm)

The company anticipates to capture beyond the originally disclosed $100 million primarily

Q1 C$203.1A C$572.7 C$559.8

through improvements in operational efficiency and reduced system redundancy.

Prior Q1 C$210.2 C$560.5 C$545.9

Q2 C$341.4 C$452.1 C$434.6 ■2026 Marketing Guidance of $210–$250 million (Excluding Plains) Described as

Prior Q2 C$325.1 - C$432.9 Conservative: Management noted that a potential tailwind could be iso-octane premiums

Q3 C$466.4 C$444.0 C$455.6 (something they are unable to hedge), benefits of which would be realized through the ramp

up of AEF towards the end of the month and moving into the summer. Our current 2026

Prior Q3 - C$439.6 C$454.2

marketing estimate is $385 million.

Q4 C$564.9 C$479.1 C$519.2

Prior Q4 C$581.7 C$489.6 C$530.4

Estimate Changes: Our updated estimates contemplate Q1 results and otherwise remain

Year C$1,575.8 C$1,947.9 C$1,969.2

largely unchanged. Recall from our prior update, our estimates already reflect a May Plains

Prior Year C$1,583.3 C$1,941.9 C$1,963.5