Q1/26 First Look: Tough Quarter in Print with All Eyes on Biz Update

Research evidence excerpt

Q1/26 First Look: Tough Quarter in Print with All Eyes on Biz Update

Energy Infrastructure

Keyera Corp.

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: EARNINGS UPDATE

May 14, 2026

Price: C$53.02 (05/13/2026) Q1/26 First Look: Tough Quarter in Print with

Price Target: C$60.00 All Eyes on Biz Update

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 65/100

Aaron MacNeil, CA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

403 292 1222

As expected, Q1/26 featured challenges for the marketing business given the AEF outage and

aaron.macneil@tdsecurities.com

a mark-to-market on certain hedges which will reverse later in the year. With the Plains close

Mark Newson, CFA^ earlier this week, the near-term focus should return to Keyera's post-close business update

403 299 3207 (timing remains TBD).

mark.newson@tdsecurities.com

Ben Fullarton^ Event: Keyera reported Q1/26 results.

416 308 8209

Impact: NEUTRALben.fullarton@tdsecurities.com

Key Data Q1/26 Results: Keyera reported EBITDA of $203 million, 3% and 7% below our estimate of $210

Symbol TSX: KEY-T million and consensus of $218 million. Note that we reduced our Q1/26 estimates with our

Market Cap C$12.2B preview, and note that transaction costs were higher than expected.

General: Market cap, net debt and EV contemplate Plains ■Gathering & Processing: operating margin of $118 million, vs. our/consensus estimates of

transaction

$121 million/$117 million.

■Liquids Infrastructure: operating margin of $141 million, vs. our/consensus estimates of $145

million/$140 million.

■Marketing: operating margin of $13 million, vs. our/consensus estimates of $8 million/$11

million.

■Corporate: operating margin of -$69 million vs. our/consensus estimates of -$64/-$50

Post-Close Investor Update Still To Come: No update on timing of the previously discussed

post-Plains close investor update.