AKSO: Model update for 1Q26

Research evidence excerpt

AKSO: Model update for 1Q26

re energy services sector, Aker Solutions' • Energy Transition FIDs could face delays: As an experienced

declining revenue outlook continues to grow pressure for contractor, the company has won and is operating projects

the company to convert its tender pipeline into awards. The in offshore wind and CCUS. We see a high risk of delays due

outlook and implied return to our price target support our to costs, elections and interest rates pushing out FIDs.

Sector Perform rating.

Risks to rating and price target

Upside scenario Downside risks: The downside key risks for Aker Solutions are

Our upside scenario assumes more growth momentum in related to lower-than-expected commodity prices and delays

both offshore oil and gas and offshore wind driving the EV/ resulting in the company winning fewer contracts. A drop in

EBITDA multiple up to above 7x to give a NOK56/share value. commodity prices, especially oil prices, for a prolonged period

could result in a drop in offshore activity and decline in Aker

Downside scenario Solutions margins on additional contracts won. Aker Solutions

Our downside scenario sees EBITDA fall due to slower has a NOK65bn backlog, and the execution of these projects

acceleration of offshore oil and gas and renewables awards underpins our financial forecasts. Problems in delivering any

and the outlook for growth is reduced in our forecasts for the one of these large projects could impact our forecasts and

Renewables and Field Development division. In this scenario margin expectations.

we would value the company at NOK29/share.

Upside risks: For Aker Solutions the greatest risks to the upside

are around securing a higher number of contracts and margin

growth. In our estimates we expect Energy Transition growth