Energy equip. & services | Q&A | How much value could the Saipem7 merger create for shareholders?

Research evidence excerpt

Energy equip. & services | Q&A | How much value could the Saipem7 merger create for shareholders?

timated the group’s combined earnings profile over 2026-28E and

conclude that Saipem7 could generate revenues close to EUR22bn over 2027-28E,

with EBITDA approaching EUR3.5-3.6bn and post-lease FCF of c. EUR1.6-1.7bn.

▪ Saipem and Subsea 7 require approval from more than 20 antitrust authorities.

Several key decisions have already been reached, including clearance from the UK

CMA in November 2025. The focus is now on the three remaining critical

jurisdictions: the US, Europe, and Brazil. Globally, we still do not forecast any

significant remedies.

▪ In our view, value creation will require significant financial engineering. We remain

convinced that the merger structure was designed from the outset with a clear

objective in mind: a future US spin-off or secondary listing of the combined entity

offshore E&C activities under the “new Subsea 7” platform.

▪ We believe the bulk of the financial engineering upside could come from a US spin-

off of the “new Subsea 7” entity. Based on the valuation multiples of key peer

TechnipFMC, we estimate that the value of this business could be close to EUR40bn.

We would also highlight that the US-Europe valuation gap has narrowed to around

30% in recent months, while the valuation discount between the current Subsea 7

entity and TechnipFMC has widened to close to 60% in recent months.

▪ Additional portfolio actions could also involve the Sustainable Infrastructure and

Offshore drilling businesses, while Saipem7 would focus on Onshore E&C activities.

▪ The combined valuation of Subsea 7 and Saipem currently stands at c. EUR16.7bn.

If our financial engineering scenario materialises over the next two years, we