Aker BP: A 2027 story

Research evidence excerpt

Aker BP: A 2027 story

Record cash flow reinforces the capital framework. Cash flow from operations reached an

all-time high of $3.1bn, supported by higher income and a $222m working-capital inflow, partly

offset by $504m of tax payments. Balance-sheet metrics also improved, with available liquidity

rising to $6.0bn and leverage declining to 0.55x from 0.69x at the end of Q1. Management

reiterated an unchanged allocation hierarchy: preserve financial flexibility and an investment-

grade profile, invest in high-return projects, and return capital through a predictable dividend.

The capital frame therefore remains credible despite higher capex estimates, in our view.

Dividend growth remains measured rather than accelerated. The quarterly dividend stays at

$0.6615 per share, implying approximately $2.65 per share for 2026 and 5% year-on-year

growth. In Q&A, management resisted calls to revisit the distribution framework despite strong

prices, improved liquidity, lower leverage and recent enhancements to peer return policies. The

response emphasized commodity-price volatility and the continuing peak investment cycle,

during which Aker BP is funding projects expected to lift both production and cash generation

materially over the next three years. Management reaffirmed that all value creation should

ultimately be returned to shareholders, but maintained that a resilient and growing dividend is

preferable through the current investment phase. The minimum ambition remains annual

growth of 5%, with 5% explicitly framed as the base case for 2026. Guidance for 2027 and

beyond will be addressed at the February capital-markets update.

Impairment is significant. Aker BP recognised a $625m impairment relating to other intangible