Global grain supply and demand (May 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

Global grain supply and demand (May 2026)

13 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Trading Companies

Industry Overview

Global grain production volume expected to decline in 2026/2027

Senior Analyst: Summary

Kanako Mizuno The US Department of Agriculture released its May World Agricultural Supply

+81 3 6202 8130 and Demand Estimates in the morning of 13 May JST (12 May local time).

kanako.mizuno@mizuho-sc.com

With the move into May, the government released its forecast for 2026/2027,

which is for global grain production to fall 1.6% YoY to 2.94553b MT. The

forecast for the supply-demand balance (production minus consumption) is

negative. The government expects wheat production to fall 2.9% with the

supply-demand balance negative due to the drop in production. It expects corn

production to fall 1.3% with the supply-demand balance negative due to the

drop in production and higher consumption. It expects soybean production to

rise 3.3% with the supply-demand balance slightly positive.

The government expects an 8.0% decline in US grain production, a 21.3%

decline in wheat, a 6.0% decline in corn, and a 4.1% increase in soybeans.

The global wheat outlook for 2026/2027 is for lower supplies, marginally lower

consumption, reduced trade, and decreased ending stocks compared with

2025/2026. Production is expected to be down from last year’s record high.

A large share of the lower production is from all the major wheat exporting

countries. The largest reductions are for the US, the EU, Argentina, and

Australia. The expected decline in US wheat production is due to reduced

harvested area and yield.

The 2026/2027 outlook for US soybeans shows higher supplies, crushing

volume, exports, and lower ending stocks from the prior marketing year.