Japan's consumption (Mar–Apr 2026): Mar. solid, Apr. mixed

Research evidence excerpt

Japan's consumption (Mar–Apr 2026): Mar. solid, Apr. mixed

12 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Comment

Family Income & Expenditure Survey, Current Survey of Commerce, ind. stats, POS

Chief Economist: Summary

Shunsuke Kobayashi Consumption in March 2026 appears to have increased. Real retail sales in

+81 3 6202 8222 the Current Survey of Commerce rose 1.3% MoM (seasonally adjusted). Real

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com consumption expenditures in the Family Income & Expenditure Survey fell

1.3% MoM, while spending on services rose 2.7% MoM in the same surveyEconomist:

(both seasonally adjusted).Soichiro Hirose

+81 3 6202 8293 Goods consumption (Current Survey of Commerce) increased in allsoichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com categories, led by fuel retailers, motor vehicle retail sales, medicine & toiletry

Economist: stores, and food & beverages. In the fuel retail sector, sales value rose

Iichi Ogimi due to a surge in fuel prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

+81 3 6202 8599 We believe there was some rush demand at medicine & toiletry and food

iichi.ogimi@mizuho-sc.com & beverage retailers. For medicine & toiletry, concerns over distribution of

sanitary paper products were cited as a factor; for food & beverages, there

was likely rush demand ahead of revisions to the tobacco tax code. Looking at

the overall picture, nominal sales value, which was broadly flat through 2025,

has regained momentum since the start of 2026. Real sales value, which had

been on a declining trend, also appears to have bottomed out recently.

Spending on services (Family Income & Expenditure Survey) was pushed up

mainly by expenditures on tuition fees for private universities and national high