China’s trade statistics paint a mixed picture

Research evidence excerpt

China’s trade statistics paint a mixed picture

12 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Strategy / Equity

Asia Equity Strategy

Signs of falling demand due to surging prices

Senior China Equity Strategist: Chinese stock markets react positively to strong trade data

Shenshen Wang The Shanghai Composite Index reached its highest level in about 10 years

+81 3 6202 8480 and 10 months at the beginning of the week (11 May) as China’s strong trade

shenshen.wang@mizuho-sc.com statistics buoyed investor sentiment. Current geopolitical concerns remain

deep-rooted, and selling pressure was high for marine transportation and port-

related stocks, but capital flowed into sectors that saw export growth based

on China’s trade data due to the rise in crude oil and raw material prices.

We think the main factors driving these share price gains include: brisk IC

chip exports on the back of the AI boom; higher renewable energy generation-

related exports (such as solar and wind power equipment); an uptrend in

automobile exports (particularly new energy vehicles; NEVs) and construction

machinery; the sharp rise in demand for electric motorcycles (especially in

Southeast Asia); and the recovery in rare earth exports. In particular, the

recovery in exports to the US appears to have eased concerns about US-

China trade tensions, leading more to take an optimistic view of the Chinese

economy.

Some export demand growth driven by Middle East turmoil and

higher crude oil prices

Chinese exports returned to double-digit growth in April. According to April

trade figures (dollar basis) released by China's General Administration of

Customs, exports were up 14.1% YoY, a significant increase versus the low

growth seen in March. As we noted in our 15 April report, the sharp drop in