Saudi Aramco’s 1Q (Jan–Mar) 2026 results

Research evidence excerpt

Saudi Aramco’s 1Q (Jan–Mar) 2026 results

fuel,

and that there is a risk they could reach critical levels before the summer peak

demand period. It stated that the tight conditions in the physical market are

also reflected in the strength of refining margins.

Outlook for a return to normalcy following the reopening of the

Strait of Hormuz

Even assuming the most optimistic scenario—that shipping through the Strait

of Hormuz were to be resumed on 11 May (the day of the briefing)—it would

take several months for the market’s supply-demand balance to return to

normal. Furthermore, the company indicated that if the closure were to be

extended by another few weeks (6–8 weeks), supply-demand normalization

could be delayed until 2027. The company has maintained its MSC (maximum

sustainable capacity) and is in a position to resume operations within three

weeks of receiving an allocation. However, the company noted that it is

maintaining the majority of production thanks to infrastructure developments,

including from its East-West Pipeline. On the other hand, it pointed out that the

situation differs for other companies (and other countries), and that the risk of

a prolonged delay in resuming operations increases due to technical issues

arising in facilities such as pipelines following a complete shutdown of plants.

It also noted that some countries estimate it would take three to six months to

fully restore facilities even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen.

In addition to production equipment, the company also pointed out issues with

the placement of tankers. In normal times, about 70 tankers passed through

the Strait of Hormuz each day, but that number has now dropped to between

two and five. Currently, more than 600 tankers are anchored in and around the