Japan Essentials - 14 May 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Essentials - 14 May 2026

Flashnote

13 May 2026

Automobiles & Components

TVS Motors India

Share gains in domestic, steady export growth

Ashish Jay Narayanan

Jain Coimbatore

Good delivery in a tough macro; outlook constructive

• For 4Q FY26, TVS delivered healthy 26% YoY EBITDA growth to Rs16.8bn, TVSL IN Outperform

Price (at 13 May 2026) INR3,522 in line with our estimate. While gross margin declined ~20bps QoQ and 12-month target INR4,271.00

employee costs rose QoQ, flattish other expenses supported margins. TVS 12-month TSR (%) 22.7

also gained from higher incentives (90bps of revenue in 4Q vs 70bps in 3Q). Volatility Index Medium

• TVS expects high single-digit domestic industry growth in FY27; however, MarketMarket CapCap (Local)(USD) (m)(m) 1,670,13817,463

management highlighted that macro developments will be key to track. Free Float (%) 49

The company expects to grow ahead of the industry, led by strong 30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 36.7

scooter demand, EV penetration, and a premium portfolio. Export demand

remains strong, and the company is focused on managing its supply chain/ Investment Fundamentals

transportation to meet the demand. Launch and traction for the 'Norton' Year end 31 Mar 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

motorcycle in 2Q FY27 will be another key development to track. Revenue (bn) 362.5 472.5 540.8 620.1

Revenue growth (%) 14.1 30.4 14.4 14.7

EBIT (bn) 37.1 52.1 60.7 74.1

Investment remains elevated EBIT growth (%) 31.8 40.5 16.5 22.1 Reported profit (bn) 27.1 36.8 43.6 53.6

Adjusted profit (bn) 27.1 37.3 43.6 53.6

• TVS guided for an Rs20bn investment in subsidiaries in FY27 vs Rs27bn in EPS rep [INR] 57.1 77.5 91.8 112.8

FY26. It also sees capex of Rs35bn for capacity additions (to 8.3mn from EPS rep growth (%) 30.1 35.9 18.4 22.8