Australian Banks

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks

Macquarie Equity Research

14 May 2026

Banks

AustraliaAustralian Banks

Getting graphic: 1H26 results

Carlos Victor

Key Points Cacho German

• Mar-26 underlying trends were softer, with revenue and PPOP down

across the sector.

• Expenses were an isolated bright spot, with all banks delivering better JasonShao, CFA

expenses, albeit partly underpinned by timing and a weaker NZD.

• With downside risk to volumes and credit quality, and competition

remaining intense, we maintain our underweight view. Figure 1 - Result trends (May-26)

Revenue Cost Asset

Bank Overall

Growth Growth Quality

• Was March quarter the turning point? In a sharp turn from the ANZ

December quarter, banks showed softer trends in March. Revenue (1H26)

growth was weaker, falling ~0-5% QoQ, after rising ~1-4% in Dec. While CBA

better cost management partly offset this weakness, PPOP fell ~1-9% (3Q26)

QoQ. Volatile markets income and FX contributed to softer revenue

NAB

outcomes, but with lending competition increasing and downside risk to (1H26)

volumes, we expect revenue trends to remain challenging ahead.

WBC

(1H26)• Underlying margins ~flat but lending competition up: Underlying

margins were softer than expected, holding ~flat, except for WBC who

Source: Macquarie Research, May 2026

continues to face headwinds given smaller replicating portfolio benefits

vs peers. Lending competition stepped up, with an average drag of ~3bps Figure 2 - March quarter underlying

HoH, up from ~0-1bps the prior 3 halves. With downside risk to volumes, trends (QoQ)

and ANZ looking to return to growth, we expect lending competition to

2 1.2 remain intense. Higher rates will still provide some tailwinds to margins, %

but this is now largely built into expectations, with most of the impact 0