NVDA: F1Q27 Preview: Increasing Data Center Ests Above Consensus (+10-15% in FY28-FY29) w/ New GW-Driven Modeling; PT to $315

Research evidence excerpt

NVDA: F1Q27 Preview: Increasing Data Center Ests Above Consensus (+10-15% in FY28-FY29) w/ New GW-Driven Modeling; PT to $315

nary component pricing environment. NVIDIA exited F4Q26 with a total Purchase

Commitment balance at $95.2 billion, an increase from $50.3 billion and $30.8 billion exiting

the prior and year ago quarters, respectively. We would note that that our discussions with

management have suggested that this is reflected of as much as a 2x increase in the duration of

these purchase commitments.

• Vera Rubin Transition / Ramp: With Vera Rubin production shipments expected in 2H (noted

samples were shipping in F4Q26), we will be focused on NVIDIA's commentary on the anticipated

ramp curve / cross-over with Blackwell and notably any color on gen/gen ASP uplift; though we

expect Blackwell shipments to continue for some time. As a reminder, Vera-Rubin is said to enable

+10x inference revenue generation ($/Token; Token/W), which can be expanded to 35x with

inclusion of Rubin + LPX - the potential attach opportunity of Groq LPUs/LPX racks will remain a

focus.

• Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) Adoption Expectations: We will be interested to hear more thoughts

on NVIDIA’s co-packaged optics roadmap, or more specifically expectations for the take-rate

of CPO looking into the Vera Rubin Ultra generation. We continue to believe 2028 remains

the timeline for broader CPO adoption (although to be debated re: take rate / penetration vs.

pluggables), while 2027 will focus on initial scale-up CPO deployments with Vera Rubin Ultra;

although copper option remains before moving to full CPO scale-up with NVL1152 Feynman

architecture in 2028.

• Inference Inflection; Increasingly Diverse Competitive Landscape. As we continue to see growth

of non-NVIDA accelerator deployments (i.e.