Kongsberg Gruppen-US approval for Belgium NASAMS - we see upside to TAM estimates-05/12/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Kongsberg Gruppen-US approval for Belgium NASAMS - we see upside to TAM estimates-05/12/2026

Kongsberg Gruppen

NEWSFLASH | 12 MAY 2026

US approval for Belgium NASAMS - we see upside to TAM estimates

The US has approved a USD 3.7bn AMRAAM package for Belgium covering both F-35A and NASAMS requirements, while

Global Defence News reports an ex-missile value of ~EUR 2.5bn for Belgium’s planned 10-battery NASAMS procurement.

This implies ~NOK 2.7bn per battery, broadly in line with Denmark (~NOK 3bn) and far above our original ~NOK 1.5bn

assumption based on Norwegian and Dutch reference orders that likely understated export scope. While part of the uplift

likely reflects Raytheon radar pass-through with limited Kongsberg margin, the pricing still points to materially higher

revenue potential and potentially stronger margins on proprietary content than previously assumed. Scope will vary across

contracts, but recent export datapoints increasingly suggest the true NASAMS TAM could be ~50% above our prior ~NOK

325bn estimate. In our 2026e estimates, we have assumed NOK 17.5bn contribution from Belgium’s NASAMS procurement.

Link to news: GDN

What is new?

The US has approved a USD 3.7bn AMRAAM package for Belgium covering both F-35A and NASAMS requirements, while reports indicate

Belgium's 10-battery NASAMS procurement carries an ex-missile value of roughly EUR 2.5bn. This implies ~NOK 2.7bn per battery on a

configuration including Raytheon radars, broadly in line with Denmark at ~NOK 3bn per battery on a similar setup. Both data points sit

materially above our original assumption of ~NOK 1.5bn per battery, which was based on Norwegian and Dutch reference orders. We now

believe these earlier benchmarks underrepresented export value.