Kongsberg Maritime-Norwegian regulation supports incremental KMAR offshore demand-05/12/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Kongsberg Maritime-Norwegian regulation supports incremental KMAR offshore demand-05/12/2026

Kongsberg Maritime

NEWSFLASH | 12 MAY 2026

Norwegian regulation supports incremental KMAR offshore demand

The Norwegian government will introduce regulations requiring operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions by 1.6m tons, which is likely to support increased scope for KMAR across the offshore fleet

operating in Norway. Using the global fleet as a proxy for decarbonization equipment costs, we estimate historical capex

intensity at around USD 280 per ton of emissions reduced, although this is likely to decline over time. Assuming a cost range

of USD 100 to 200 per ton of reduced emissions, the incremental TAM opportunity for KMAR is approximately NOK 1.5bn to

3.0bn, compared with around NOK 5bn in offshore newbuild orders in 2025. In our view, the regulation is supportive for

KMAR offshore demand, particularly for the aftermarket, although it is unlikely to drive a step change in overall offshore

scope (already very high and few vessels).

Details:

The Norwegian government will introduce regulations requiring operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to reduce the greenhouse

gas intensity of vessels used in petroleum operations from 2029. The requirement applies at the operator level and covers all vessels

regardless of ownership. The phase in is gradual, starting with a 10% reduction in greenhouse gas intensity in 2029-2031 and increasing to

40% in 2038-2040, with expected cumulative emissions reductions of around 1.6m tons of CO2 equivalents by 2040.

The regulation includes several flexibility mechanisms, including exemptions for vessels operating on the NCS for less than 30 days during