Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#81): US deportations" Kapteyn

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#81): US deportations" Kapteyn

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#81): US deportations

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

Deportations are not materially above Obama-era levels arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

The recent slowdown in net migration into the US has been an important factor keeping

the unemployment rate broadly stable: while labour demand has softened, so has

supply (particularly from foreign workers). As we discussed with Wendy Edelberg

(Brookings), the main driver has been a sharp fall in inflows of what the Congressional

Budget Office (CBO) calls “other foreign nationals”—migrants who are not lawful

permanent residents, refugees, asylees, or temporary visa holders. During the 2021-

2024 immigration surge, inflows in this category reached several million per year. By the

end of President Biden’s term, they had already slowed significantly – from roughly 3mln

annualized at the peak to 600,000 annualized by end '24 – and under President Trump

they appear to have declined further, to roughly 100,000 annualised.

A second pillar of the administration's objective to 'secure the border' is an increase in

deportations. Department of Homeland Security data show that, by the end of fiscal

year 2025 (September), removals were broadly in line with Obama-era peaks and well

below the stated target of 1 million per year—indeed, not materially different from

2009-2014 levels. That said, there has been a recent acceleration, with deportations

rising from around mid-2025, suggesting the run rate in fiscal year 2026 could be

roughly 100,000 higher. Achieving these levels has been associated with a sharp

increase in enforcement activity not shown in the chart. Annual arrests have risen to