Keeping Up With Capacity: Watch This Space

Research evidence excerpt

Keeping Up With Capacity: Watch This Space

adly balanced and 10-

20% as constructive. The 22.1% level suggests a more aggressive

backlog rebuilding, consistent with carriers positioning ahead of a

demand recovery, though we caution that sustained levels above

this range could raise the risk of future capacity adds overshooting

what is required by demand (a tale as old as time).

◼ The spot rate recovery is holding, though demand inflection

remains elusive. Figures 22-27 show a longer-term history of spot

rates and compare current trends against prior downturns,

recovery periods, and typical seasonal patterns. While the rates

surged in March, they were largely flattish with a small dip in April,

broadly in line with typical seasonality, when rates tend to

moderate slightly (Figure 24). Despite this dip, absolute rate levels

remain elevated, with prices including fuel surcharge up about 40%

year over year and ex-fuel rates up 30% (Figure 22-23). Current

spot rates are tracking near the upper end of early-cycle recovery

periods, still below 2011 peaks but broadly in line with, and now

slightly below, 2010 levels (Figure 26). Importantly, rates have

clearly broken out of the range observed during the recent market

downturn (Figure 25), reinforcing the view that the market has

transitioned into an early recovery phase. Regionally, rates have

increased across most markets, with the Midwest and Northeast

lagging a bit and experiencing modest pullbacks more recently;

however, both regions are beginning to show signs of stabilization

and early improvement (Figure 27). The inflection in rates is

already flowing through spot-exposed segments, with companies

noting active portfolio management to capture upside.

Management commentary around bid season has become more