XL Smart: Decent qtr. but growth levers slowing down; uncertainties remain elevated

Research evidence excerpt

XL Smart: Decent qtr. but growth levers slowing down; uncertainties remain elevated

ch Analyst

was completed in 2025, with materially lower costs expected through the rest of 2026. Merrill Lynch (Singapore) jessie.lo@bofa.com

Reiterate Underperform: synergy optimism priced in McridResearchWangAnalyst>>

Despite improved quarterly delivery, we reiterate Underperform on XL Smart with an Merrill Lynch (Singapore) mcrid.wang@bofa.com

unchanged PO of IDR2,300. While margins have rebounded as costs normalize, earnings

remain clouded by elevated depreciation and integration‑related adjustments through at

least 3Q26, and subscriber losses continue as the business prioritizes quality over scale.

Stock DataMoreover, with the stock having rerated sharply post‑merger, we believe much of the

medium‑term synergy optimism is already priced in, limiting potential upside relative to Price 3,100 IDR

peers amid ongoing competitive intensity and capex demands linked to 5G expansion. Price Objective 2,300 IDR

With the note we adjust our EPS numbers for XL to account for higher D&A and Date Established 27-Apr-2026

narrower 2026E losses as integration costs reduce. Investment Opinion B-3-7

52-Week Range 2,140 IDR-4,550 IDR

Estimates (Dec) (Rp) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Net Income (Adjusted - bn) 1,852 (4,414) (715) 1,854 2,638 Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 2,326 USD / 13,128.4

EPS 141.0 -258.1 -41.8 108.4 154.2 Market Value (mn) 40,698,135 IDR

EPS Change (YoY) 44.1% NM 83.8% NM 42.3% Average Daily Value (mn) 1.99 USD

Dividend / Share 159.0 0 0 54.2 77.1 Free Float 34.0%

Free Cash Flow / Share 796.1 369.2 61.0 230.6 253.9

BofA Ticker / Exchange PTXAF / JKT

Valuation (Dec)

Bloomberg / Reuters EXCL IJ / EXCL.JK

P/E 22.0x NM NM 28.6x 20.1x

Dividend Yield 5.1% 0% 0% 1.7% 2.5% ROE (2026E) -2.4%