XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk PT First Take: In-line 1Q26 results; wireless customer market share remains under pressure

Research evidence excerpt

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk PT First Take: In-line 1Q26 results; wireless customer market share remains under pressure

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 May 2026

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk

PT Underweight

EXCL.JK, EXCL IJ

First Take: In-line 1Q26 results; wireless customer Price (12 May 26):Rp3,100

market share remains under pressure Price Target (Dec-26):Rp1,600

Our First Take: EXCL delivered an in-line set of 1Q26 results. Normalized

EBITDA came in at IDR5.43tn, relatively stable qoq and making up 26% of FY

consensus. As expected, mobile ARPU growth was healthy at 6% qoq. However,

wireless revenue came in flat as EXCL’s wireless customers remained under

pressure and declined 3.6m 1Q26. Since the XL-Smartfren merger in 2Q25, EXCL

has now lost 13.2m subscribers. Although the decline in customers could be

attributed to the ongoing customer clean up exercise, we believe the scale of ASEAN TMT

ACcustomer decline could lead to lower growth expectations going forward. On a Ranjan Sharma, CFA

more positive note, cost discipline is being maintained. Normalized total opex (65) 6882-1303

declined by 1% qoq, resulting in stable normalized EBITDA margin for the quarter. ranjan.x.sharma@jpmorgan.com

In the earnings call, mgmt. stated that ~IDR500bn of opex related to integration J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

costs will be booked in FY26. It also guided to ~IDR5-6tn of accelerated Steven Suntoso

depreciation, expected to be incurred mostly during 1Q-3Q26. We are UW EXCL. (622-1) 5291 8090

steven.suntoso@jpmorgan.com

PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

Sigrid Qiu

Key positives (65) 6882-1454

sigrid.qiu@jpmorgan.com

• EXCL reported wireless ARPU of IDR47.3k - up 6% qoq vs 4Q25. This J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited