LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Deutsche Bank

Research

Latin America Economics Date

15 May 2026

LatAm Week

Outlook

Macro and Strategy Highlights

Francisco Campos

Market Outlook Chief LatAm Economist

n Progress towards a resolution of the Middle East conflict remains stalled. +1-212-250-9764

Financial assets have displayed a differentiated response to the protracted

tensions. The Strait of Hormuz closure, the US blockade on Iranian ships Beatriz Garcia Nunes

and the lack of an imminent resolution to the conflict in sight, have LatAm Economist

maintained oil prices north of $100/bbl. +1-212-250-9584

Sebastian Medina

n We continue to have a constructive view on BRL based on relatively good

LatAm Economist

macro fundamentals, despite the electoral noise. The improvement in trade

+1-212-250-1080

relations with its biggest trade partners – the US, China and the EU – should

continue expanding exports, while high yields attract carry trades. The Carlos Munoz-Carcamo

main risks for our bullish BRL view come from two fronts: crowded Macro Strategist

positioning and the electoral noise. On the latter, however, we believe +1-212-250-2259

should be more relevant in Q3, as we approach the October elections.

Christian Wietoska

n We remain tactically neutral on MXN, as the currency is trading mostly on Strategist

external developments. While Banxico’s latest communication suggests +44-20-754-52424

the easing cycle has stopped, MXN has lost its carry appeal in the last

months.

n CLP continues to trade on externals and is vulnerable to higher oil prices.

However, it seems the market is overly pessimistic as short positions on CLP

are at the highest in the past five years, which contrast with copper at all-