Australia / New Zealand Week Ahead: 18-24 May

Research evidence excerpt

Australia / New Zealand Week Ahead: 18-24 May

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

Australia / New Zealand Week Ahead 15 May 2026

18-24 May

Phil Odonaghoe

Australia Economist

Labour force survey, RBA minutes and consumer sentiment +61-2-8258-1606

The highlight this week will be the labour force survey for April, due Thursday. We

look for a 15k gain in employment and for the unemployment point to hold steady

at 4.3%. The April NAB business survey reported a sharp drop in the employment

conditions index, to its lowest level since mid-2024. Back then, strength in the

non-market sector (not captured in the NAB survey) kept overall employment

growth strong despite market sector weakness. We will be watching to see

whether the offsetting tailwind seen for employment back in 2024 occurs again

over coming months, as private business pessimism stemming from the Iran

conflict (see chart on page 5, here) risks leaking into labour demand.

The minutes to the RBA’s May meeting are due Tuesday. We will be watching to

see if the minutes add any further colour to Governor Bullock’s description in the

post-meeting press conference suggesting that the RBA now has some “space”

to assess risks on both sides, which we interpreted as a signal pointing to a near-

term pause, at least, in the hiking cycle.

The Westpac consumer sentiment index will be released Tuesday, along with

inflation expectations on Thursday. These releases were delayed from last week

to capture households’ reaction to the Federal Budget. We will be watching

inflation expectations especially closely to see whether they have fallen back

given the drop in fuel prices after the Government reduced the fuel excise.

RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will speak Tuesday at the Bloomberg

Forum for Investment Managers.