Latam Macro Notes: Peru – BCRP stays put but signals readiness to act

Research evidence excerpt

Latam Macro Notes: Peru – BCRP stays put but signals readiness to act

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Markets Date

Latam Macro Notes 15 May 2026

Peru – BCRP stays put but signals readiness

Beatriz Garcia Nunes to act

LatAm Economist

+1-212-250-9584

Key points:

• The BCRP left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. Francisco Campos

Chief LatAm Economist

• The statement noted that the recent surge in inflation was driven by the +1-212-250-9764

increase in oil prices, but retained the view that the upside pressures are

transient. Sebastian Medina

+1-212-250-1080 • Nevertheless, the BCRP tweaked its forward guidance to hint at its

readiness to act if conditions warrant it, suggesting a lower bar for

potential hikes.

• We retain for now the expectation of steady rates for an extended period,

but acknowledge that the risks are heavily tilted to the upside. Stubborn

core inflation remaining above the target range, further upticks of 12m

inflation expectations, or a negative market reaction to the runoff election

(slated for June 7th) could lead BCRP to tighten monetary conditions as

early as the next meeting.

The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) decided to leave the policy rate on hold at

4.25%, in line with our consensus-matching expectation.

The BCRP's portrayal of the domestic macro backdrop has become more

circumspect, chiefly due to the elevated inflationary pressures. The BCRP

reiterated that inflation has risen since March, emphasizing that the April print

was fuelled by the increase in oil prices (Figure 1). The board articulated that,

given the supply-driven nature of the current inflationary pressure, both the

headline inflation and the core metric (excluding food and energy prices) should