Target: Expecting 1Q to Hit the Target

Research evidence excerpt

Target: Expecting 1Q to Hit the Target

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Target 15 May 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States TGT.N TGT US Price target (USD) 123.00 Price at 14 May 26 123.08

52-week range 132.10 – 83.68

Consumer

Retailing / Department Stores Valuation & Risks

& Broadlines

Expecting 1Q to Hit the Target

Krisztina Katai

TGT reports 1Q26 earnings results on Wednesday, May 20th pre-market Research Analyst

+1-212-250-0590 Investor expectations are high for TGT’s 1Q print, fueled by strong data,

particularly in March, and we are raising our earnings estimates above consensus. Jessica Taylor

Specifically, we are increasing our 1Q SSS estimate to +3.5% (vs. consensus Research Associate

+1.6% and buy-side ~+4.5%), primarily driven by favorable tax refunds and +1-212-250-3165

positive early traction from Target's merchandising and store turnaround efforts,

Nick Breckenridge and our EPS to $1.62. Research Associate

+1-212-250-9179 While we anticipate strength in 1Q and acknowledge green shoots from in-store

experience improvements, consumer stimulus is now past us, tougher compares

are ahead, consumers across income levels increasingly seek value, and

AMZN/WMT continue to narrow the “fashion gap” with more competitive Key changes

apparel/general merchandise offerings. Moreover, we see risk to the top-line Price target (USD) 119 123 3%

recovery if gas prices stay higher for longer given TGT’s greater discretionary

Source: Deutsche Bank

sales mix, which combines with greater wallet pressure from the potential

resurgence in food at home inflation. Hold.

• Top-line: We model 1Q SSS growth of +3.5% (prior +1.0%; Street +1.6%),

predicated on +3.5% increase in traffic and flat ticket. Bloomberg