Aveanna Healthcare: Another great quarter; conservatism creates durability concerns

Research evidence excerpt

Aveanna Healthcare: Another great quarter; conservatism creates durability concerns

14 May 2026

Health Care Facilities and Services

Aveanna Healthcare

Figure 5: Segments vs

Street

Source : DB estimates, company reports,

Bloomberg Financial LP

PDS. Revenues and gross profit of $536m and $149.2m beat consensus estimates

by 550bps and 670bps, respectively. However, we note that the gross profit beat

narrows to 240bps after accounting for the $6m 1x tailwind from increased

collections in AR receivables. While it is difficult to underwrite RCM tailwind in

AVAH’s run rate, we simply note that AVAH has previously discussed how the

quality of its preferred payor relationships has allowed it to improve the collections

of its receivables, exemplified by a comparable AR “1xer” realized in 1Q25. Hence,

this “1x” benefit is driven by a structural change in AVAH’s model unlike some other

1xers like retroactive rate increases that have bearing on future earnings.

On the preferred payor front, AVAH was able to sign four additional preferred payor

agreements in PDS in 1Q, which positions the company strongly to achieve its 2026

goal of adding eight relationships to bring its total preferred payor partners to 38.

These preferred payors accounted for 60% of total MCO volumes in 1Q26 vs 57%

at the end of 2025. Management anticipates that moderated government rate wins

should moderate relative to the past couple of years which should largely offset the

preferred payor rate wins. As a result, AVAH told investors it expected the PDS

spread to settle in the $12+ range, resulting in a gross margin in the 28%

neighborhood that we saw in 1Q.

While AVAH takes the higher reimbursement from its preferred payor partners and