1Q26 Results: Raises '26 Guidance Following Strong Start to the Year

Research evidence excerpt

1Q26 Results: Raises '26 Guidance Following Strong Start to the Year

25 $2,433 $2,575↑ $2,718↑

HSD—support from new/existing preferred payers should offset this dynamic and

continue providing constructive rate growth (5.2% in 1Q and 4.0% adjusting for 1x EBITDA (mm) $184 $321 $331↑ $355↑

benefit), which in turn should continue enabling volume growth as these wages are EPS $0.06 $0.60 $0.68↑ $0.76↑

passed through to strengthen the hiring/retention of nurses. In HHH, AVAH added four Consensus Estimates

new preferred payers and sustained an episodic mix above 80% as its MCO partners 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

increasingly reimburse AVAH for episodes of care, which results in better alignment—

EBITDA $321 $344

evidenced by DD% revenue growth in four consecutive quarters. Also noteworthy, the

company does not expect any impact on organic growth or M&A opportunities from EPS $0.62 $0.69

CMS's moratorium on home health and hospice enrollments. Meanwhile, the 18 MS Valuation

preferred payers added in 2025 (in addition to two more in 1Q) are beginning to re- 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

accelerate growth, with 7.4% revenue growth in 1Q—AVAH expects to exit the year with EV/Revenue 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x

MS growth approaching 10% on mid-40s% gross margins.

EV/EBITDA 15.4x 8.8x 8.5x 7.9x

Raises '26 Outlook. The company expects revenue $2.56-2.58B vs. Street $2.56B

P/E NM 12.3x 10.9x 9.8x

and prior guide $2.54-2.56B with EBITDA now $328-332M vs. Street $321M and prior

QTR. EBITDA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4$318-322M. Guidance now includes a $6M 1x benefit in 1Q to both revenue and EBITDA

from collections of previously reserved AR with the balance coming from fundamental 2024A $35 $46 $48 $55

strength across all segments. Notably, the outlook does not include any contribution 2025A $67 $88 $80 $85