Underpromise and Overdeliver; Strong 1Q Earnings & FCF Beat

Research evidence excerpt

Underpromise and Overdeliver; Strong 1Q Earnings & FCF Beat

Canada | Metals & Mining

Barrick Mining Corp EquityMayResearch11, 2026

FLASH NOTEUnderpromise and Overdeliver; Strong 1Q

RATING BUYEarnings & FCF Beat

PRICE $43.13^

A strong 1Q driven by higher prod'n & lower costs. Street was modeling 1Q

based on 640-680koz guide (+ readthroughs from NEM's 1Q print) vs 719koz PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $63.00 | +46%

actual. Prod'n is expected to improve across '26 (incl ~750koz in 2Q). We 52W HIGH-LOW $54.69 - $17.41

continue to think B is significantly undervalued at 0.6x P/NAV, and strong FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.7% | 501.67

quarterly performance helps, but a material re-rating likely requires divesting MARKET CAP $74.0B

assets in challenging jurisdictions & the NA IPO. Buyback authorization doubled TICKER B ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

to $3bn. noted.

Earnings and FCF beat. 1Q26 adj. EPS of $0.98 beat our $0.80 estimate and $0.83 cons.

Consolidated 1Q EBITDA of $3,933M also beat our $3,516M estimate and $3,455M cons. The

earnings beat was due to a combination of higher gold sales and lower production costs. 1Q

consolidated FCF of $1,575M was better than our $1,285M estimate and $1,265M cons.

Production and costs beat. 1Q attributable gold production of 719koz exceeded our 688koz and

694koz cons at cash costs of $1,327/oz (vs our $1,496/oz and $1,403/oz cons). The production

beat was driven by outperformance at NGM (376koz vs. our 360koz) and Loulo Gounkoto (64koz

vs our 37koz). AISC of $1,708/oz was also better than our $1,965/oz and $1,889/oz cons. Copper

production of 49kt was in line with our 50kt, and AISC of $3.67/lb was below our $3.92/lb.

2026 guidance reiterated, with 730-770koz production planned for 2Q. B maintained its 2026