MOS: Q1/26 below expectations, phosphate production guidance withdrawn

Research evidence excerpt

MOS: Q1/26 below expectations, phosphate production guidance withdrawn

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Andrew D. Wong (Analyst)

Ali Mecklai (Associate)

Saad Khan (Associate)

May 11, 2026

The Mosaic Company

Q1/26 below expectations, phosphate production guidance withdrawn

NYSE: MOS | USD 22.19 | Sector Perform | Price Target USD 28.00

Sentiment: Negative

Our view: We expect a negative reaction in Mosaic shares as Q1/26 results came in below estimates (-5% vs. consensus) and the

company withdrew 2026 phosphate production guidance due to high sulphur costs. We also roughly estimate Q2 implied guidance

at $375-425M EBITDA (-20% vs. consensus), although note significant uncertainty given high sulphur/ammonia input costs and no

guidance on Fertilizantes. We think high sulphur and ammonia costs will continue to weigh on Mosaic until the Strait of Hormuz

is open and supply for phosphate inputs are normalized. We see potential for a 2027 uplift in earnings as phosphate margins

eventually improve, but 2026 will likely remain volatile and we remain on the sidelines.

Actual: $416M Adj. EBITDA | RBC $468M | Consensus: $437M

Summary: Q1/26 results came in below consensus expectations, mainly due to lower phosphate margins as a result of higher

sulphur and ammonia costs, partially offset by higher Fertilizantes earnings.

• Potash sales volumes were 2.2Mt, slightly above the RBCe estimate of 2.1Mt. MOP realized sales price was $265/tonne, about

in line with the RBCe estimate of $267/tonne.

• Phosphate sales volumes were 1.9Mt, meeting the RBCe estimate of 1.9Mt. DAP realized sales price was $668/tonne, slightly

above the RBCe estimate of $660/tonne. Gross margin was $2/tonne, below RBCe at $38/tonne, due to higher realized sulphur

and ammonia costs.