MOSAIC COMPANY (+) : Q1 2026 conference call feedback: Sulphur still stinks

Research evidence excerpt

MOSAIC COMPANY (+) : Q1 2026 conference call feedback: Sulphur still stinks

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

MOSAIC COMPANY OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD22.2  TARGET PRICE USD33 (UPSIDE 49%)

FLASH NOTE

Q1 2026 conference call feedback: Sulphur still stinks

11 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 17:33* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

David Symonds BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8496 david.symonds@uk.bnpparibas.com

Key takes

Mosaic are in a tough spot, which was reflected in the tone of the call. Incremental positives were that they feel cash

conversion costs per ton in phosphate can still fall even with curtailments, and that they can quickly ramp capacity back

up to target if the situation on economics improves; they see this environment as unsustainable, and noted that stripping

margins being so compressed at the same time as farmer economics being this weak is virtually unprecedented. The

main incremental negative is the scale of the curtailments – half of Louisiana and Bartow, removing 1.7mt p/a of capacity

in the US and implying the old target quarterly production range of 1.8-2mt is now closer to 1.4-1.6mt, with further cuts

possible if sulphur prices don’t come down. We agree with the view that the current situation is unsustainable, with the

most obvious path to normalisation being a sharp rally in crop prices. This would support the whole sector, but Mosaic

is the least priced for this scenario, in our view.

Scorecard

Tone: Negative

Change in tone vs. morning release: Neutral

Notes from the call

- Three of our four facilities running at targeted rates at the end of the 1st quarter

- Better sulphur sourcing than competitors, but not without risk

- Reduced this year’s capex and shifting inventory built last year to support cash generation