CSL: Guidance downgrade worse than anticipated

Research evidence excerpt

CSL: Guidance downgrade worse than anticipated

Adj Diluted 6.65 6.42 6.92 7.34

chain challenges relating to Hemgenix and increased iron competition. Prev. 6.75 7.34 7.73

Additionally, CSL expects an additional ~$5b in non-cash pre-tax P/AEPS 11.0x 11.4x 10.5x 9.9x

impairments across FY26/27 relating to CSL Vifor's product portfolio and

selected PP&E. AllPricedmarketas ofdatapriorintradingAUD; allday'sfinancialmarketdataclose,in USD.EST (unless otherwise noted).

Another guidance downgrade. CSL now expects FY26 revenue of ~$15.2b

(vs RBCe $15.3b, Consensus $15.8b) ~5% lower than the mid-point of

their previous guidance for 2-3% cc growth ($15.9b-$16.0b). NPATA (ex-

restructuring costs and impairments) is estimated to be ~$3.1b (vs RBCe

$3.29b, Consensus $3.55b) or 9% lower at the mid-point of previous

guidance for 4-7% growth ($3.36b-$3.46b).

A challenging outlook. Management said early indicators are suggesting

CSL is regaining share within Ig however new products from maturing

competitors have challenged their leading position and sustainable

profitable growth within Behring is predicated on momentum beyond

Ig. Consequently, the company expects the gross margin recovery within

Behring to experience another setback of ~100bps in FY26. Albumin

volumes in China have stabilised and CSL has gained market share however

price erosion has continued, and the overall market value has come down

and with the Baheal partnership in its infancy, we remain cautious on the

recovery for the segment. Vifor remains challenged, with impacts now

extending to nephrology alongside persistent generic competition within

iron, pressures that pose incremental uncertainty into FY27.

Forecast changes. We have lowered our revenue and margin assumptions