Trading company sector: 4Q FY3/26 results review

Research evidence excerpt

Trading company sector: 4Q FY3/26 results review

11 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Trading Companies

Industry Overview

Guidance conservative due to Middle East conflict; eyes on Mitsui, Toyota Tsusho

Senior Analyst: Summary

Kanako Mizuno FY3/27 NP guidance released by the eight trading houses at their 4Q FY3/26

+81 3 6202 8130 results announcements, held between 30 April and 8 May, were conservative

kanako.mizuno@mizuho-sc.com overall, partly due to uncertainties stemming from the situation in the Middle

East. In addition, many companies believe the impact from the situation in the

Middle East will have basically petered out some time between end-June and

during September, and they expect impact from market turmoil and supply

chain disruptions to persist through the end of the year.

Sumitomo (8053)’s results left the best first impression, followed in order

by Sojitz (2768), Toyota Tsusho (8015), Itochu (8001), Kanematsu (8020),

Mitsui (8031), and finally Marubeni (8002). Regarding share price performance

relative to TOPIX (based on 8 May closing prices; versus the trading day prior

to each company’s results announcement), Sumitomo outperformed by 20%,

Toyota Tsusho by 4%, and Itochu by 1%, while Kanematsu performed in line

with TOPIX, and Marubeni underperformed by 13%, Mitsui by 8%, and Sojitz

by 5%.

Top picks after results announcements: Mitsui, Toyota Tsusho

Based on post-results share price trends and information given at the results

briefings (Kanematsu’s is scheduled for 18 May), we favor Mitsui and Toyota

Tsusho. Mitsui’s share price has fallen recently, and we see upside versus

its guidance, which looks conservative (especially for the LNG and iron ore

businesses). The company’s new medium-term plan (FY3/27–FY3/29) calls