Mizuho Financial Group: F3/26 Results: Core Business Solid, Strong Earnings Generation Continuing

Research evidence excerpt

Mizuho Financial Group: F3/26 Results: Core Business Solid, Strong Earnings Generation Continuing

Update

May 15, 2026 11:03 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMizuho Financial Group (8411) | Japan Mia Nagasaka

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Core Business Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T, 8411 JT)

Banks | JapanSolid, Strong Earnings

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target ¥7,550Generation Continuing Shr price, close (May 15, 2026) ¥6,912

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥17,073.8

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥52.2

Reaction to earnings

Unchanged In-line Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

The plan appears conservative.

Buyback scale may have fallen short of market expectations, but this reflects the

need to prepare for customer funding demand amid uncertainty; share price

correction would present a good entry opportunity.

F3/26 results overview: 1) Consolidated NP was ¥1,248.6bn (YoY +41.0%). Credit

costs were ¥133.0bn (including ¥54.7bn forward looking). As of end-F3/26, the

securities portfolio (available-for-sale securities) included JGB holdings of ¥15.0tn

(average remaining maturity 0.9 years). Unrealized gains were ¥1,819.0bn, with

unrealized losses of ¥354.7bn for foreign bonds (after hedging) and ¥53.9bn for

JGBs. Equity holdings were reduced by ¥152.4bn vs. end-F3/25 (including agreed

sales). The CET1 ratio (fully-loaded basis, excluding OCI) was 9.9% at end-F3/26. 2)

The F3/27 consolidated NP plan is ¥1,300bn (YoY +4.1%, our forecast ¥1,200bn).

Assumptions include credit costs of ¥110bn, equity-related gains/losses of ¥360bn,