Mizuho Financial Group (8411): FY3/26 briefing: Rakuten Bank investment does not appear to pose buyback downside

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411): FY3/26 briefing: Rakuten Bank investment does not appear to pose buyback downside

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411)

FY3/26 briefing: Rakuten Bank investment

does not appear to pose buyback downside

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 8,300 JPY | Price: 6,886 JPY

19 May 2026

Mizuho FG held its FY3/26 full-year results briefing at 13:00 on May 19. The FY3/27 NP

Equityguidance was ¥1.3tn, broadly in line with market expectations; however, concerns over

downside risks to the CET1 ratio and share buybacks associated with a potential Shinichiro Nakamura >>

investment in Rakuten Bank were priced in, leading to significant underperformance on Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

May 18, the day following the earnings release. Based on this briefing, such concerns are +81 3 6225 8824

likely to prove unfounded, and it appears plausible that additional share buybacks of shinichiro.nakamura@bofa.com

around ¥300bn, comparable to the previous 2H level, could be executed at the interim Yuji Kobayashi >> Research Analyst

results. Depending on further BoJ rate hikes, there is also meaningful upside potential BofAS Japan

for upward revisions at the interim stage. We maintain our Buy rating. Key management +81yuji.kobayashi@bofa.com3 6225 8791

messages are as follows: Taisei Okui >>

Research Analyst

(1) FY3/27 NP guidance ¥1.3tn (EPS ¥534) has upside depending on market assumptions BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 8947

While the FY3/27 NP guidance assumes no BoJ rate hikes and USD/JPY at 150, implying taisei.okui@bofa.com

somewhat conservative market assumptions, management stated that it remains a fairly

ambitious guidance as it does not factor in any business impact from the Middle East

situation (implying YoY +13% vs. FY3/26 NP of ¥1.15tn excluding one-offs).