Aerospace & Defense: Flyby: Aircraft Retirements Still Historically Low Amid Elevated Oil Prices

Research evidence excerpt

Aerospace & Defense: Flyby: Aircraft Retirements Still Historically Low Amid Elevated Oil Prices

Update

May 15, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMAerospace & Defense | North America Kristine T Liwag

Equity Analyst

Flyby: Aircraft Retirements Still Kristine.Liwag@morganstanley.comJason T Holcomb +1 212 761-2980

Research Associate

Jason.Holcomb@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5592

Historically Low Amid Elevated Justin M Lang

Justin.Lang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6251

Oil Prices Gabrielle Knafelman

Gaby.Knafelman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4838

In this week’s Flyby, we check in on current aircraft retirement Shaina C Zuber

rates to look for any impact from elevated oil prices. We find ResearchShaina.Zuber@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-6353

that retirement rates are still historically low, although caution

Aerospace

that retirement impacts typically lag oil price increases by 6-12 North America

months. Industry View Attractive

Defense

North America

Checking in on Aircraft Retirement Rates Industry View Attractive

With oil prices at elevated levels since the commencement of the conflict in Iran on Key Stories in MS Research:

February 28, 2026, investors have been concerned with potential impacts to Beta Technologies Inc: Certification Momentum

commercial aerospace, particularly on heavily aftermarket-exposed names (such as and eIPP Leadership; Modest Engine

GE, Heico, StandardAero, TransDigm, and Loar). A key facet of this concern is that Certification Delay

higher jet fuel prices could lead to flight cancellations and flight schedule Arxis Inc: Another A&D Compounder; Initiate at

reductions, leading airlines to eventually begin to retire older aircraft (which also OW and PT of $44