Updating Our Model Post Q1/26 Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Our Model Post Q1/26 Earnings

May 11, 2026 | 18:11 ET~

MP Materials Corp.

MP-NYSE Rating Price: May-11 Target Total Rtn Critical Minerals

Outperform $67.41 $75.00 11%

Raj Ray, CFA Analyst

raj.ray@bmo.com 44 (0)20 7246 5430

Max Yerrill, CFA* Analyst

Updating Our Model Post Q1/26 Earnings max.yerrill@bmo.com (437) 214-3503

Frederic Bolton VP Associate

frederic.bolton@bmo.com +44 7850 655 751

Bottom Line: Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Limited

BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.*

We are updating our model following MP's Q1/26 results, which were stronger than

expected, driven by higher NdPr sales. We model sequentially lower production in 2YR Price Volume Chart

Q2 driven by planned maintenance downtime; however, we expect NdPr production 120

to reach steady state exiting 2026 with costs declining toward ~US$40/kg thereafter. 100

Execution remains the key theme for 2026 and magnet production at Independence

60 100

80remains on track for mid-2026, with the heavy rare earth separation line commissioning 90 70 40

50expected in Q2/26. We maintain our Outperform rating and US$75 target price. 60 40 20 30

0 0

Key Points LHS: Price ($) / RHS:Nov Volume (mm) May Nov Source: FactSetMay

2026 outlook. We expect Q2/26 REO and NdPr production to be sequentially lower Company Data in $

at ~12,300t REO and ~870t NdPr due to planned semi-annual maintenance. We expect Dividend $0.00 Shares O/S (mm) 178.0

stronger NdPr production growth in H2/26 and expect MP will reach run-rate production

Yield 0.0% Market Cap (mm) $12,000

levels by the end of 2026. We model Q2 NdPr sales of 850t NdPr. We model Q2/26 and

full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of ~US$35M and ~US$175M, respectively. MP reiterated Net Debt (mm) $(738) EV (mm) $12,981

FY26 capex guidance of US$500-600M. BMO Estimates in $