G7 Goals Imply Sustained Wave Of Industry Support

Research evidence excerpt

G7 Goals Imply Sustained Wave Of Industry Support

USA | Metals & Mining

MP Materials EquityJuneResearch21, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEG7 Goals Imply Sustained Wave Of Industry

RATING BUYSupport

PRICE $60.88^

With the G7 goal of sourcing 40% of critical minerals from outside China

by 2030, coupled with explicit discussions of stockpiling, the cadence of PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $85.00 | +40%

government support for rare earth projects likely accelerates. This suggests MP 52W HIGH-LOW $100.25 - $29.58

could lack opportunities for contra-cyclical balance sheet flex until late in the FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 74.5% | 414.01

DoD contract (i.e. a higher WACC). The potential Saudi JV could clarify how MP MARKET CAP $11.8B

aims to balance industry participation and profitability. TICKER MP ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Revising Estimates: We are adjusting our estimates to better reflect the ramp in magnetics, timing

factors and likely PPA dynamics. The near-term impact is a reduction of 37% for 2026E to $127m,

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

a 29% reduction for 2027E to $356m and a 21% reduction for 2028E to $436m. Our current

2026 2027 2026 2027

benchmark for run-rate EBITDA once the DoD contract ends is $571m, rising to $1.7bn if MP flexes

its balance sheet to 2x EBITDA with growth investments earning a 10% IRR ($2.4bn on a 15% IRR REV -7% -1% -12% -1%

scenario). EPS -83% -60% -75% -45%

Secular Themes: We expect three narratives to continue to support MP shares near-term. First, 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

even if the Iran war is resolved, the global energy shock likely strengthens the momentum for EPS 0.03 0.02 0.02 (0.03) 0.05

the shift to a more electrified (and energy-efficient) economy, particularly in Europe, which likely PREV 0.16 0.17 0.11 0.30