Stronger-Than-Expected Start to the Year and Better Quarters to Come

Research evidence excerpt

Stronger-Than-Expected Start to the Year and Better Quarters to Come

liabilities. Our target prices also take into account near-term operating cash flow. Our stock

recommendations are based on returns to target plus yield on a one-year forward basis, as well as recognition of catalysts.

Risks: Downside to ABX's stock price versus our target price can arise from either adverse movements in NAV, negative revisions to forward

earnings, or erosion of multiples. This can be driven by adverse macro factors including falling commodity prices, corporate risks including

overpayment for assets or dilutive M&A, diversion from capital allocation frameworks, failures to meet guidance or execute on plans,

issues with mine plans and geological models, insufficient social engagement driving permitting delays or local opposition, underspending

on maintenance or stripping, and other operating issues. There are also risks beyond the company's control including geopolitical and

environmental risks including natural disasters. Specifically for ABX, key risks include: delays or capital cost escalation at the Lumwana

expansion or Reko Diq project including unexpected issues building a remote project in Pakistan, ongoing challenges in Mali to Loulo-

Gounkoto's fiscal arrangement and ability to operate, operating issues at NGM or PV, and challenges bringing Fourmile into the NGM JV. Upside

risks include material re-rating on a copper growth multiple, new discoveries, rapid unit cost improvements, or significant growth in the

Fourmile valuation from currently anticipated levels.

Methodology and Risks to Target Price/Valuation for Newmont Corporation (NEM-NYSE)

Methodology: We value our mining companies with detailed asset-level discounted cash flow models, aggregated to the corporate level,