Credit Saison (8253) 4Q results: Profit guidance 10% above MTP target; no share buyback, contrary to our expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Saison (8253) 4Q results: Profit guidance 10% above MTP target; no share buyback, contrary to our expectations

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Koki Sato AC 16 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8609

koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Credit Saison (8253) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥5,000)

Investment Thesis

We expect the payment business, with its strategic focus on improving profitability rather

than simply expanding the mass market, and the finance business, which is continuing to

increase assets steadily through collaboration with Saison Fundex and Suruga Bank, to

drive stable profit growth. In FY2025, we expect the global business to fall short of the target

in the current medium-term plan due to unstable trends, but for the other two businesses to

compensate for this. If an ROE of 10% is achieved in FY2026 as we expect, we see is room

for a reassessment of the shares on the view that they are undervalued at a P/B below 1x.

Valuation

Our December 2026 price target of ¥5,000 is based on a target P/E of 9x and our FY2026

EPS estimate. As uncertainties surrounding the global business have not been fully

resolved, we use a multiple at a slight discount to the average for our non-bank coverage of

about 10x (based on the 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Earnings growth due to greater-than-expected growth in operating assets

• Greater-than-expected increase in shareholder returns

• Profit growth due to greater-than-expected decreases in costs

Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Profit stagnation due to greater-than-expected downturn in income

• Greater-than-expected deterioration in the domestic economy