Commodities Comment

Research evidence excerpt

Commodities Comment

Following government announcements, we now forecast a fall in

Indonesian ore supply this year

Still forecasting small rise in finished production due to higher ore imports and ore destocking, but

200kt lower than our previous forecast

Indonesian ore supply

• On January 14th, Tri Winarno, Director General of the Ministry of 2025 2026F 26F/25 % chge

Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), indicated that to regulate supply Wet ore balance (mt)

and support prices, it planned to reduce mining quotas (RKABs - Ore production 295 270 -8%

Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya) to 250-260mt of wet gross weight Imports or ore 16 23 45%

ore this year. Now updated to “260-270mt” on February 10th Total supply 311 293 -6%

• Details of quotas have yet to be finalised with only 210mt issued by Ore consumption 301 303 0.8%

end-April. We are now assuming that they aim to bring about a Implied ore stocking/destocking 10 -11

roughly 10% cut in actual Indonesian nickel mine output in 2026 when

compared with 2025's levels. Assuming some extra RKABs are issued for Finished production 2.50 2.49 -0.4%

H2 2026, we are using 270mt production for 2026, vs. around 295kt last

year (act. output).

PT Weda Bay Nickel production: it runs out of

• Biggest RKAB cuts was for PT Weda Bay Nickel which saw its RKAB cut

RKAB by Q2 2026 unless it is granted more

from 42mt in 2025 to only 12.5Mt in 2026, implying a 275kt Ni

production cuts from 400kt Ni last year. Govt may grant them up to 14

12.5mt quota for H2 2026, but this appears to be dependent on them 12

paying an outstanding fine of around $200m due to alleged forestry 10 ore 8

permit violations

6 nickel

gwet 2

mt 0

Q124 Q224 Q324 Q424 Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126 Q226F

Source: ESDM, Eramet, Macquarie Strategy, May 2026