Australian Federal Budget 2026-27

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Federal Budget 2026-27

Macquarie Equity Research

13 May 2026

Financial Services

AustraliaAustralian Federal Budget 2026-27

Key Points

• The Budget's CGT and negative gearing changes could impact house ElizabethMiliatis SophieBolton

prices and turnover, while promoting investment into new builds.

• Discretionary trust tax changes add wealth management complexity,

while potential super test changes may lift allocations to alternatives.

• We view QAL (OP) as a clear Budget winner, while NWL (OP) & HUB (N)

should also benefit. PXA (OP) & Asset Mgrs could face minor headwinds.

• Material tax reform to impact housing market: The Government has

announced the 2026-27 Federal Budget, with key changes including (i)

50% CGT discount reduced to inflation-adjusted cost base, alongside

a 30% minimum tax on capital gains; (ii) negative gearing no longer

available for existing residential properties, although still available for new

resi builds and commercial property; (iii) policies supporting house supply;

(iv) discretionary tax changes imposing a minimum 30% tax on taxable

income; and (v) potential super performance test changes.

• RE private credit a clear budget winner (QAL, Outperform): Real

estate private credit player QAL will likely benefit the most from the

Federal Budget given (i) the reduction of the CGT discount will likely

incentivise retail/institutional investors to favour income-generating

investments over capital growth, supporting fundraising; (ii) new builds

remain eligible to both negative gearing benefits and the choice of

either the 50% CGT discount or indexation, which will encourage housing

market demand for new builds, resulting in an improved deployment

outlook; and (iii) foreign purchases continue to be restricted to new

builds.