NGVT: Watching the Wheels - Maintain EW on Still-Soft Demand Fundamentals

Research evidence excerpt

NGVT: Watching the Wheels - Maintain EW on Still-Soft Demand Fundamentals

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — May 11, 2026

Chemicals

Ingevity Corp.

Watching the Wheels - Maintain EW on Still-Soft Demand Equal Weight

Fundamentals Price Target: $75.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

We reiterate our EW rating on NGVT on soft underlying demand trends for its remaining EPS 2026 4.70 4.80 -2.0%

business. We adjust our estimates to account for the Road Markings divestiture and the EPS 2027 5.20 6.25 -16.7%

expected sale of APT at the end of 2026E. Maintain $75 PT. Rev. (MM) 2026 1.07B 1.17B -8.8%

Rev. (MM) 2027 911.4 1.01B -10.0%

2Q26E: We tweak our EBITDA estimate from $105MM to $105.5MM but now see sales

falling 21% Y/Y to $290MM as we account for the Road Markings sale. 2026E: We lower Ticker NGVT

our EBITDA estimate from $380MM to $375MM (-7% Y/Y) as we account for Road Upside/(Downside) to Target 0.8%

Markings, partially offset by modest volume growth across segments. 2027E: We raise Price (05/11/2026) $74.44

our EBITDA estimate from $360MM to $365MM on growth in PM, as we adjust for

APT (an earnings headwind). 2028E: We lower our EBITDA estimate from $380MM to 52 Week Range $39.74 - 79.28

$375MM. Market Cap (MM) $2,681

Enterprise Value (MM) $3,708

Modest Growth in PM and PC: We see modest top-line growth in PM this year, mainly Average Daily Value (MM) $24

driven by pricing, while we see volumes up less than 1% Y/Y (which is positive, given S&P's Dividend Yield 0.0%

projection for global light vehicle production this year). We see underlying results in

Performance Chemicals up LSD Y/Y, though this will be more than offset by the impact of $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

NGVT's Road Markings divestiture (excluded from results in 2Q26E onward). EPS