GEL: Post Q1 Update; GoM Ramp Delayed—Lowering PT & Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

GEL: Post Q1 Update; GoM Ramp Delayed—Lowering PT & Estimates

Equity Research

Price Target Change — May 11, 2026

Midstream Energy

Genesis Energy, L.P.

Post Q1 Update; GoM Ramp Delayed—Lowering PT & Overweight

Estimates Price Target: $18.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

While GEL still expects 2026 EBITDA to be "at or near the mid-point" of guidance of Price Target $18.00 $19.00 -5.3%

$594MM, we lower our estimates and PT to reflect a slower ramp in GoM volumes given EBITDA 585.5 605.4 -3.3%

continued delays. We stay Overweight rated. (MM) 2026

EBITDA 615.2 635.6 -3.2%

Reducing PT To $18/Unit. We're lowering our PT to $18/unit from $19/unit to reflect a (MM) 2027

lower EBITDA forecast given a slower than previously forecast GoM volume ramp. Our Rev. (MM) 2026 1.69B 1.58B 7.2%

price target is based on a blend of (1) three-stage distribution discount model, (2) three- Rev. (MM) 2027 1.69B 1.61B 4.5%

stage discounted free cash flow analysis, and (3) sum-of-the-parts valuation based on our

2027E. Ticker GEL

Upside/(Downside) to Target 10.0%

Lowering 2026/2027 EBITDA Estimates. We are reducing our 2026/2027 EBITDA Price (05/08/2026) $16.37

estimates to $585MM/$615MM from $605MM/$636MM mostly to reflect Q1 results 52 Week Range $14.03 - 18.64

and lower Shenandoah production. Our revised 2026 EBITDA estimate is below the mid- Market Cap (MM) $2,005

point of guidance reflecting a slower ramp in GoM volumes given continued delays and Enterprise Value (MM) $5,225

due to conservatism.

Average Daily Value (MM) $5

Dividend Yield 4.6%

GEL Lays Out Multi-Yr Ramp In Offshore Growth But Timing Is Risk. GEL projects a

ramp in offshore volumes driven by multiple new wells tied to existing infrastructure. At

$ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY