MOS: 1Q26 Revenue Beat, EBITDA & EPS Miss, 2Q26E Phosphate & Potash Volumes Below Our Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

MOS: 1Q26 Revenue Beat, EBITDA & EPS Miss, 2Q26E Phosphate & Potash Volumes Below Our Estimates

Chemicals Equity Research

Mixed Fertilizer Market Outlook: For fertilizer markets, MOS highlighted ongoing volatility driven

by raw material constraints, particularly sulfur, which reached record prices in the quarter and has led

to global phosphate production curtailments. Phosphate finished fertilizer prices increased during

the quarter, partially offsetting higher raw material costs, while global demand remains constrained

by available supply, with stronger demand in Asia, particularly India whose government has signaled

continuing government subsidy support, offsetting more cautious purchasing in the Americas. MOS

sees the potash market as balanced, with global demand supported by strong value relative to other

nutrients and resilient North American demand; China and Brazil set 1Q potash import records as

inventories were replenished. Canpotex is fully committed through June.

Mosaic Biosciences Update: Mosaic Biosciences is expected to launch 8-10 new products in 2026,

including two products launched in 1Q26. MOS expects 2026 revenues to double 2025 net sales of

$68MM, supported by new product introductions.

Strategic Review of Assets Progresses: MOS completed the sale of the Carlsbad, New Mexico

potash mine in April 2026 and executed Florida real estate transactions generating $31MM of cash

proceeds in 1Q26. In Brazil, MOS announced plans to pursue strategic alternatives for its Araxa and

Patrocinio assets, including potential sale opportunities at Araxa and continued evaluation of niobium

opportunities at Patrocinio, following the idling and demobilization of high-cost operations.

2026 Guidance and Capital Allocation

• Total Capex Reduced: ~$1.25B (vs. prior of $1.5B)