Okta, Inc.: We Feel Good About 1Q cRPO on Better Checks; Could See FY27 Revenue Guide Go Up, with Room to Continue Raising

Research evidence excerpt

Okta, Inc.: We Feel Good About 1Q cRPO on Better Checks; Could See FY27 Revenue Guide Go Up, with Room to Continue Raising

roving fundamentals could drive LDD growth,

and that protecting agents is fundamentally an identity problem; (2) bears continue to

point to the risk of headcount cuts impacting Okta's seat-based pricing and debate who

has the right to win in agentic. Feedback from our recent Okta upgrade has skewed more

bullish than bearish. Following Okta's 4Q earnings, our checks have improved materially, and

identity as a category has risen to the top of our CIO survey (with OKTA as a vendor rising as

well). Bulls tie this to improving execution and demand, arguing that Okta could end the year

as a sustainable double-digit grower. Additionally, agentic is increasingly being framed as an

identity problem, and with Okta positioned as the broadest platform within identity, it could

in turn be well-positioned to benefit from this rising-tide market dynamic - recall that Okta is

already seeing six-figure agentic wins across both Auth0 for AI Agents (reached GA in

November 2025) and Okta for AI Agents (reached GA in April 2026). On the flip side, the bear

case here centers on seat-based pricing pressure and rising competition in identity/agentic.

Bears continue to flag ongoing headcount cuts as a structural risk to Okta's seat-based

model. At the same time, agentic is becoming increasingly competitive, with some investors

arguing that other larger platform players, e.g., MSFT (covered by Raimo Lenschow), are

better positioned to win in this space given ownership of the broader control plane.

• Conference Call Details: Thursday, May 28th at 5pm ET; Webcast Link: here.

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