OKTA F1Q27 Preview: Valuation Disconnect

Research evidence excerpt

OKTA F1Q27 Preview: Valuation Disconnect

May 20, 2026

John DiFucci john.difucci@guggenheimpartners.com OKTA F1Q27 Preview: Valuation Disconnect

212 518 9670

Lawrence Vensko Key Message: We expect Okta will post upside to consensus F1Q27 revenues (Subs

lawrence.vensko@guggenheimpartners.com and total), though we see some risk in F2Q total revenue guidance if business momentum

212 518 9548 doesn’t improve. Despite that, we believe Okta’s initial FY27 total revenue guidance of

9% y/y growth is still achievable, and the company should be able to raise the bar by

at least the F1Q beat. Consensus F1Q cRPO reflects management’s guidance, and

we believe Okta will be able to meet or exceed Street expectations, though forward-

looking guidance for cRPO remains difficult to accurately predict. Guidance for cRPOOKTA BUY has negatively impacted the stock in prior quarters despite solid results. Our field checks Okta, Inc.

this quarter saw an improvement from last quarter when all partners fell below plan. This Sector: Software

quarter, we spoke with 5 partners (vs. 4 last quarter) and 2 exceeded, 2 met and 1 fell

Earnings Preview below while pipelines were similarly split. Additionally, based on our analysis of U.S.

Federal Government data, we estimate Fed New ACV contribution was about $6M in F1Q Share Price $85.70

and represents less than 10% of total ACV, but is within historical ranges. We continue to Price Target $138.00

believe Okta’s shares are undervalued at 4.3x EV/NTM Recurring Revenue & 15.6x our

NTM FCF. We also continue to believe in its opportunity to provide an identity platform

beyond its core authentication solutions. Okta reports F1Q27 earnings on Thursday, May Revenue ($M)

(FY JAN) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY 28, 2026, after market close.

2026 688 728 742 761 2,919