KSPI: Solid Results Across the Board; Extended Loan Durations Add to Growth Story

Research evidence excerpt

KSPI: Solid Results Across the Board; Extended Loan Durations Add to Growth Story

May 11, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Kaspi's shares are +10% YTD vs. the S&P +8% flat.

With shares trading at ~6x CY27 diluted earnings, we believe suggests an underappreciation around the sustainability

of KSPI's long-term growth. However, we believe Kaspi's position as a leading digital commerce enabler within

Kazakhstan and Central Asia will help the company continue to gain share and deliver double-digit growth over the

medium term. While some growth levers seem to have reached a limit, we believe that the company's vast product

offerings across its three segments should enable KSPI to expand ARPU as utilization continues to scale. In addition,

the company continues to benefit from secular tailwinds, including (but not limited to) further eCommerce penetration,

B2B payments utilization, and merchant financing adoption, which should also support growth. Kaspi also boasts a

variety of sustainable competitive advantages, underpinned by its super app ecosystem, in our view; helping to sustain

(and even expand in some cases), its market share across key verticals. Lastly, the company's announcement of its

investment in Hepsiburada also presents an additional growth vector given KSPI's foray into Turkey.

In addition, we posit that Kazakhstan's macro backdrop presents a favorable setup for the company and for shares

over the medium term as inflation further decelerates and interest rates fall. These factors, in our view, point to a

more encouraging consumer backdrop as discretionary spending power expands. In addition, falling interest rates

also present a tailwind to profitability over time. Amidst this, we reiterate our Outperform rating and raise our YE26

Price Target to $105 (from $95).