KSPI: Marketplaces Back on Track

Research evidence excerpt

KSPI: Marketplaces Back on Track

Payments, Processors, & IT Services

FLASH

FLASH: KASPI ADS (KSPI) May 11, 2026

KSPI: Marketplaces Back on Track Rating:

Outperform

Price:

●Kaspi announced 1Q26 results with revenues of KZT 1.08trn (+31% Y/Y), $85.90

below our KZT 1.164bn (KZT 896 ex-Turkey) and above consensus at KZT Price Target:

1.030bn. 1Q adjusted EBITDA growth came in at 9%, on pace to beat FY26 $90

guidance calling for +5%. Reported net income of KZT 252bn (-1% Y/Y) came % Upside: 4.8%

in above our KZT 228bn (KZT 256bn ex-Turkey) and consensus at KZT 236bn.

Shares are up ~3% in pre-market trading. Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

Priced as of 05/08/26

●Guidance: KSPI reiterated its 2026 guidance which calls for Payments TPV

of ~15% TPV growth, Marketplaces GMV growth of ~20%, and FinTech TFV

growth of ~5%. 1Q trends are tracking in line with guidance on GMV and TPV

but lower on TFV. 2026 guidance also calls for ~5% adj EBITDA, which the

company is on pace to beat despite an investment year. Darrin Peller

dpeller@wolferesearch.com

(646) 582-9310

View Darrin’s Research ●Payments: Revenues of KZT 158bn (+7% Y/Y) came below our KZT 175bn and View KSPI Model

the Street's KZT 172bn. Adjusted EBITDA of KZT 90bn (flat Y/Y) compares to View Comp Table

our and the Street's net income of KZT 109bn. TPV of KZT 11.4trn (+14% Y/Y)

was below our KZT 11.9trn. Take rate declined 6bps Y/Y from 1.09% to 1.03% Griffengdrebing@wolferesearch.comDrebing

due to consistent mix shift in Kaspi Pay and B2B. (646) 582-9314

Scott Wurtzel

swurtzel@wolferesearch.com

●Marketplaces: Revenue of KZT 520bn (+49% Y/Y) was above the Street's (646) 582-9313

507bn. Meanwhile, adj EBITDA of KZT 118bn (+12% Y/Y) was above our net Daniel Krebs

income of KZT 79bn and the Street's KZT 71bn.