MOS: Staring Down the Sulfur Abyss, But Dynamics Worse Off for Most Other Global Producers

Research evidence excerpt

MOS: Staring Down the Sulfur Abyss, But Dynamics Worse Off for Most Other Global Producers

Agriculture

Fertilizers - Market Overweight

MOSAIC COMPANY (MOS) May 11, 2026

MOS: Staring Down the Sulfur Abyss, But Dynamics Worse Rating:

Off for Most Other Global Producers Outperform

Price:

$21.79

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

Despite investors' fairly cavalier attitude for global fertilizer shortages, MOS' $30

Prior: $32outlook underscores a serious issue across global phosphate mkts (regardless % Upside:

of one's positioning) - if the SoH fails to open and S Pxs rise further, global 37.7%

applications will further suffer. View MOS Model

View Comp Table

We attribute MOS shrs' -1.8% move post earnings (XLB +1.3%) to (i.) 1Q headline Company Information

miss (despite low expectations), (ii.) suspension of FY P production guidance (despite 52-Week Range $22 - $38

$7,053 Cap. (MM)higher Pxs), (iii.) ongoing Fertilizantes uncertainty, (iv.) lackluster FCF, and (v.) further Market Enterprise Value (MM) $12,188

fears re: input costs (sulfur in focus). Shares Out. (MM) 317.4

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $217.56

Our Take: MOS' '26 P outlook is challenging due to aggressively rising S Pxs, SI% of Float 0.1%

but headwinds facing Chinese, Indian, and Moroccan production seem more severe Price Performance

(higher Pxs, greater exposure to Middle East procurement, higher logistics cost, etc.). YTD LTM

Projected 2H strip margin dynamics seem untenable - and require further global Px MOS (10)% (33)%

increases in an already challenging market. Global P under-application will inevitably S&P 500 8% 31%

lead to yield loss - which is now critical to the narrative. 40

Taking #s Down, but Light at the End of the Tunnel: Given MOS' production 3634